Weibring one up on Thorpe at 3M Championship

Golf Betting Lines

08/05/2007 - Blaine, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - D.A. Weibring fired a six-under 66 Saturday to take a one-stroke lead after two rounds of the 3M Championship.

Weibring completed 36 holes at 13-under-par 131. His 131 matched the 36-hole scoring record that Ed Dougherty set in 2000.

Jim Thorpe, who shared the lead after one round with Tom Jenkins, posted a four-under 69 Saturday. Thorpe is alone in second place at minus-12.

Jenkins carded a two-under 70 and is two shots back at 10-under-par 134. He stands alongside John Harris, Senior British Open champion Tom Watson and Curtis Strange.

Weibring was steady to start his round with birdies on two and six, both from inside 15 feet, that moved him to minus-nine. He stumbled to his lone bogey, a three-putt bogey, on the seventh at TPC of Twin Cities.

The three-time winner on the Champions Tour fought back around the turn with birdies on 11 and 13.

Weibring converted back-to-back birdies from the 15th to jump to minus-12. He closed with a kick-in birdie at the last hole to end one clear of Thorpe.

"It was a challenging day out there," said Weibring, of the breezy, rainy conditions. "I hit the ball solid today. Whenever you shoot 31 on the back nine, especially in tough conditions, it gives you a good feeling."

Thorpe traded a birdie for a bogey from the fourth. He birdied the par-five sixth from 10 feet out and made it two in a row with a 20-foot birdie putt at the seventh.

The 58-year-old Thorpe parred four straight around the turn. He ran off three birdies in a four-hole span from the 12th to take the lead at 13-under.

However, Thorpe faltered to a double-bogey at the par-four 16th to slide to 11-under. His drive found water left of the fairway, then his third shot plugged under the lip of a greenside bunker.

Thorpe got back within one of Weibring as he two-putted for birdie at the last to finish at 12-under.

"The course was much tougher today. I played well, but the wind blew hard," said Thorpe. "The course played much longer today. There are still lots of people in this tournament. I need to shoot seven-under on Sunday to have a chance to win."

Bruce Lietzke (68), John Jacobs (70) and Craig Stadler (70) share seventh place at nine-under-par 135. Keith Fergus, Senior PGA Championship winner Denis Watson, Bobby Wadkins and Jay Haas are one stroke further back.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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