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08/25/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) -
Country: Angola
FIBA Ranking: 12
Head Coach: Luis Magalhaes
Key Players: Joaquim 'Kikas' Gomes, Olimpio Cipriano
Overview: For years, the Angolan team has been associated as the African nation Charles Barkley eloquently referred to, "All I know about Angola is they in trouble." Times have changed and the Angolans have become one of Africa's most dominant team. By qualifying for this tournament, the Angolans were crowned African champions for the 10th time in the last 20 years.
Strengths: The African champs have a shortage of length up front but make up for their lack of size with grit and toughness. This has been the staple of Angolan basketball for years as they also bolster a lineup of athletic players who can get up and down the court with the best of them.
Weaknesses: Having only one player standing as tall as six-foot-10, grabbing rebounds and playing interior defense can be rather taxing. The Angolans will also have a shortage of shooters as they roster a plethora of slashers with little to no three-point shooting to speak of.
Tournament Expectations: Group A is quite possibly the deepest of all the groups. With Argentina, Germany and Serbia all ranked in the top-10 in the world, it will be difficult for the African champs to move towards the Round of 16. Their lack of size will be too much to overcome as the elite teams have will overwhelm them with size.
Country: Argentina
FIBA Ranking: 1
Head Coach: Sergio Hernandez
Key Players: Luis Scola, Carlos Delfino, Andres Nocioni
Overview: This Argentina team will try to make the farewell tour for the group known as the "Golden Generation" memorable one. The origin of the name goes to the fact this same group are the ones who claimed silver at the 2002 FIBA World Championships, gold at the 2004 Olympics and bronze at the 2008 Olympic Games. Although they will be without its star, Manu Ginobili, there's no shortage of skill on a squad destined to make noise.
Strengths: Having one of the most balanced and well disciplined teams in the world has helped the Argentineans development over the past decade. Assisting in that balance has been the stellar interior play of Luis Scola, who at the 2009 FIBA Americas Championship was named tournament MVP. Along with Andres Nocioni and Carlos Delfino, the NBA contingent will play a large role in the success of the South Americans.
Weaknesses: With no Ginobili, the Argentineans will be left without a star got-to-player at the end of games. Also, being a veteran team means there isn't a ton of youthful vitality on the floor and the lack of athleticism could prove to be problematic against some of the more elite competition.
Tournament Expectations: Getting out of a tough Group A will be its first task but this team is capable of taking it as far as its tested veterans can manage to take them.
Country: Australia
FIBA Ranking: 11
Head Coach: Brett Brown
Key Players: Patrick Mills, David Andersen
Overview: It's been nearly 10 years since the Aussies have tasted a top-five finish at the Olympics or World Championship and with their star center, Andrew Bogut, out of action it's a trend that could likely continue.
Strengths: Going through a time of change and revival, this team from down under has one of the youngest lineups in international play. Their youthful line up can provide a number of challenges as they have knack to be pesky physical defenders, something opponents don't necessarily appreciate. They also have a formidable front court that will provide the defense and rebounding needed to compete. The experience the young players have on a high level of play is exceptional and will prove to be a benefit for them against other established talent in the tournament.
Weaknesses: Not having a top tier-point guard and center will hamper the possibilities the Boomers have in sight. Their inexperience and youth could potentially be volatile as there is little to no veteran experience to speak of.
Tournament Expectations: Making it into the Round of 16 won't be enough for the Boomers as the fourth place team in Group A will be matched up with the top seed from Group B, most likely the United States. With that in mind, the Australians will be in tough as they face quality opponents in Germany, Serbia and Argentina on their way into the Round of 16 and quarter finals.
Country: Germany
FIBA Ranking: 7
Head Coach: Dirk Bauermann
Key Players: Jan Jagla
Overview: Going into Turkey, the Germans will be without the one man synonymous with the team over the past 10 years, Dirk Nowitzki. In his absence the Germans will try to revive a squad of aging veterans from the 2008 Olympic campaign with some young blood.
Strengths: The Germans still bolster one of the biggest front lines in international competition and will have a sizable advantage on the interior once again. Their experience could be beneficial in close games but the experience and wit of bench boss, Bauermann, could be their biggest edge.
Weaknesses: With no Nowitzki, this team will be hard pressed to find a go-to- guy late in games. The backcourt is also a source of concern as there seems to be no current players exceptionally adept to being creative playmakers as some of the better talent waits in the wings.
Tournament Expectations: This is one of the hardest teams in the tournament to gauge. If their showing at the 2008 Olympics is an indication of what to expect, this Dirk-less edition will be hard pressed to make it out of a highly competitive Group A.
Country: Jordan
FIBA Ranking: 38
Head Coach: Mario Palma
Key Players: Rasheim Wright
Overview: Set to make its inaugural appearance at the FIBA World Championships, Jordan can credit a large part of its recent success to head coach Mario Palma.
Strengths: In Rasheim Wright, the Jordanians have one of the most prolific scorers in international competition as they rode their star throughout the FIBA Asia Championship in order to qualify for this summer's tournament. They also have a wizard on the bench in Palma, so given the opportunity this is a team that could surprise a few.
Weaknesses: A large majority of Jordanian players participated in limited amount of games due to the dissolution of their basketball federation a year ago. With such little experience, this team will have their work cut out for them.
Tournament Expectations: There's no chance this team catches a whiff of the Round of 16 but a single victory would go a long way for the program. Finding it at this tournament may be too much to ask for.
Country: Serbia
FIBA Ranking: 5
Head Coach: Dusan Ivkovic
Key Players: Nenad Krstic, Milos Teodosic
Overview: Before last year's Euro Basket 2009 in Poland, this team hadn't finished in the top-five in any international event since winning gold in 2002 at the World Championship in Indianapolis. Yet they still managed to find a youthful resurgence that helped them regain their place atop the European rankings.
Strengths: Serbia found out at last year's qualifier that they had very good talent at the youth level, as a number of its NBA players chose not to participate. The youngsters have been playing together and under coach Ivkovic for nearly three years and have developed a strong demeanor on the court. The guard play is exceptional and there is no shortage of size on this roster. Krstic, however, still could be suspended because of his role in a bench- clearing brawl during Serbia's exhibition game against Greece.
Weaknesses: Much of what makes the Serbs so intriguing is what makes them so vulnerable. The youth can be tough to handle if the situation gets rough, as a pre-tournament brawl with Greece indicates. How Serbia handles adversity could play a factor in determining where they finish.
Tournament Expectations: Even with most of its NBA players unavailable, this team intends to not just simply compete but to come out of Group A and contend for the entire tournament. Anything less than a quarter-final appearance will be seen as a disappointment.
<< Juventus confirms Aquilani move
Turin, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Juventus announced on Wednesday that the club
has acquired Liverpool midfielder Alberto Aquilani on loan, with an option for
a permanent move for $20 million at the end of the season.
The 26-year-old Aquila
<< Bolts re-sign Downie
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Lightning have reportedly re-
signed restricted free agent Steve Downie.
According to TSN of Canada, the right winger signed a two-year, $3.7 million
deal.
Downie, 23, had 22 goals, 24 a
<< FCS Season Preview: Missouri Valley
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With Southern Illinois having won a record
14 straight conference games and gone 15-1 since the Missouri Valley Football
Conference replaced its old Gateway name in 2008, it is easy to overlook
something abou
<< Edmonton hopes to turn season around in clash with Saskatchewan
Edmonton, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Edmonton Eskimos soldier on this weekend
as they entertain the Saskatchewan Roughriders in a Western Division showdown
at Commonwealth Stadium on Saturday night.
Both teams enjoyed a week off recently, alt
FIBA World Basketball Championship Preview - Group C >>
Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) -
Country: China
FIBA Ranking: 9
Head Coach: Bob Donewald
Key Players: Yi Jianlian, Wang Zhizhi, Sun Yue
Overview: China will be without the services of superstar Yao Ming as he
continues to battl
FCD producing positive results under Hyndman >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Suddenly FC Dallas is looking like a legitimate contender
in Major League Soccer under head coach Schellas Hyndman.
That hasn't always been the case since the long-time Southern Methodist
University coach took ove
FIBA World Basketball Championship Preview - Group D >>
Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) -
Country: Canada
FIBA Ranking: 19
Head Coach: Leo Rautins
Key Players: Joel Anthony, Andy Rautins
Overview: It's been sometime since Canada has made an impact on the world
stage and since the de
Kroenke becomes majority owner of Rams >>
St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The St. Louis Rams announced on Wednesday
that E. Stanley Kroenke has become the majority owner of the club.
The decision was made via a vote by the rest of the league's owners at a
meeting in Atlanta.
"St
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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